Dawn of the Electric World Order
Global shockwaves from the war on Iran
Global shockwaves from the war on Iran are accelerating the energy transition
May 3, 2026
AnalysisAgainst Carbon Shock Therapy
Building a toolkit for decarbonized sovereignty
At the end of April in Santa Marta, Colombia, two months into the US-Israeli war on Iran, fifty-nine countries attended the first high-level conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels. The attendees agreed that decarbonization was more than energy sovereignty.…
March 26, 2026
InterviewsSuperdependence
On the Canadian auto industry
The Canadian auto industry is in a state of existential crisis, facing new US tariffs and pressures. What does this mean for organized labor?
March 19, 2026
AnalysisFiscal Democracy
How Lula combined social spending, tax reforms, and fiscal balance to build popular sovereignty
Lula’s overhaul of the tax system represents a challenge to the Brazilian oligarchy which goes beyond the distributive policies of previous PT governments.
Pinto’s Lesson
Styles of development in Latin America
Reconciling cepalino and dependency theory, Aníbal Pinto developed a powerful framework for understanding the internal fractures in the working class.
February 24, 2026
InterviewsOil Wars
An interview with Venezuela's former Minister of Energy
Analyzing Venezuela's energy resources as a site of political struggle, from the nationalizations under Chávez to the ouster of Maduro.
Battlefield Amazonia?
The political economy of the Brazilian rainforest
How the PT's environmental crackdown undermined its own ambitions for the biome.
February 12, 2026
AnalysisNon-Hegemony
Development in a fragmenting world order
The neoliberal world order is collapsing. In its wake, powerful states have abandoned multilaterialism in pursuit of national aims.
Overexpectations in e-commerce?
A story told through the clash of the world's two largest corporations by revenue
Is brick-and-mortar retail bound to lose ground to the new portals of infinite choice and doorstep delivery? The picture is more complex than it might seem.
Meridional
A new monthly newsletter on Latin America’s political economy
Introducing a new newsletter on the political economy of Latin America.
December 5, 2025
AnalysisMissed Opportunities
Lithium and green extractivism in Argentina
Vast lithium deposits offer Argentina a chance to pursue development and reindustrialization—but the Milei government is letting it go to waste.
December 4, 2025
AnalysisLithium Experiments
Chile’s mineral strategy and geopolitical realignment in the global energy transition
Gabriel Boric's government has revived industrial policy to upgrade Chile's role in the green transition. Yet serious obstacles remain.
November 28, 2025
InterviewsBrazil and the World System
An interview with Brazil's Minister of Finance
Poised between Western and Eastern power blocs, Brazil is at the forefront of contemporary debates on geopolitics, development, and the green transition.
October 30, 2025
AnalysisMexico’s Big Green State
Claudia Sheinbaum plans to repurpose the country's state-owned enterprises towards decarbonization
AMLO's government emphasized the importance of state-owned enterprises for reviving Mexico's energy sector. With her announced regulatory reforms, President Claudia Sheinbaum is reorienting these enterprises towards an even more ambitious purpose: decarbonization. Sheinbaum's proposals not only have the potential to…
October 24, 2025
AnalysisEconomic Resilience
Iran’s economy in the aftermath of the June bombing
Years of international isolation and sanctions have prompted Iran to structure its economy to survive various kinds of onslaught. Though it remains exposed to further interruption, Iran’s economy has proven itself resilient in the face of Israel’s campaign. What explains…
October 24, 2025
AnalysisSyrian Continuity
The emerging picture of Syria’s political economy
A general finding in the study of rebel politics is that groups that come to power without a clear hegemonic position within the rebel movement are vulnerable to spoilers or coups d’etat that push the country back into civil war.
October 23, 2025
AnalysisSteel Politics
Lessons from China’s rise to the forefront of global steel production
Since the 1970s, steel production across the Global North has dramatically declined. But steel remains essential to industrial development—and the Green Transition. The history of steel production in Europe and the US, as well as its contemporary rise in China,…
October 16, 2025
AnalysisThe State and Software Capital
Digital public infrastructure and the promise of India’s online consumer market
The Aadhaar digital identification project was launched in 2009 with the promise of eradicating corruption. Over 1.3 billion Indians today hold Aadhaar numbers, making it the world’s largest biometric ID program. Aadhaar has transformed not only state-citizen relations, but also…
India in the New Global Order
Between hydrocarbon coalitions and the green electro-state
At the Polycrisis, we’ve taken a special interest in the question of how India has been positioning itself in the new world order that has been emerging since 2022. Our inaugural essay featured India’s nonalignment in the Ukraine war as…
October 2, 2025
AnalysisBitcoin under Bukele
Remittances and the failures of El Salvador’s techno-utopian economy
Earlier this year, El Salvador quietly put an end to its infamous “Bitcoin experiment.” In an economy dependent on remittances from the US, the project promoted the adoption of crytocurrencies under a financial inclusion framework. But it was ultimately unable…
September 26, 2025
AnalysisNew Triangular Relations
Security-shoring and trade between Mexico, China, and the US
The confrontation between the two largest global economies leaves Mexico in a fragile and complex triangular relation.
September 19, 2025
InterviewsThe Belt and Road 2.0
An interview with Mathias Larsen on China’s overseas clean-tech manufacturing investments
Chinese firms are going out. As the US withdraws from green tech industries and pressures its allies to follow suit, Chinese companies are stepping in to power the developing world’s green transition—at a staggering scale.
September 18, 2025
InterviewsLand Value Politics
An interview with Daniel Wortel-London
The rise to power of a new urban progressive politics has been a hallmark of the Trump era. From the City Council of Los Angeles and the Board of Alderman of Chicago to the State Legislatures in Sacramento, Springfield, and…
September 12, 2025
AnalysisAn Environment for Business
Carbon markets and climate catastrophe
Carbon markets—purported pricing of the social costs of emissions—have been for decades a favored mitigation strategy in global climate governance. There is clear evidence that markets and carbon taxes have failed to price emissions in line with the climate mitigation…
September 10, 2025
AnalysisAdding Value
The Federal Housing Administration and the costs of incentive-driven development
Mortgage insurance has traditionally been the method the federal government has used to induce investment in owner-occupied housing. But for multifamily rentals, the history of mortgage-insurance programs shows the costs of relying on profit incentives for expanding the housing supply.
September 4, 2025
InterviewsSacrifice Zones
Daniel Tygel discusses the impacts of rare earth mining in Brazil
Since Donald Trump announced in July that the US would impose 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian imports, there has been much speculation about the future of Brazil’s foreign trade, both with China and the US. One particular area of focus…
August 27, 2025
AnalysisGrowing Pains
Spain’s search for a new growth model
How can a Sánchez administration that enacts a successful progressive agenda—and a PSOE party that retains and even increases its share of voters while handling a succession of unprecedented crises—become so fragile electorally? To grasp the extent of this vulnerability,…
August 14, 2025
AnalysisCoordinating Tamil Nadu
How India’s southernmost state transformed into a global manufacturing hub
Amid India’s grand ambitions for manufacturing growth, Tamil Nadu stands out as an outlier. The state ranks first in the number of factories in the country and accounts for one out of every seven manufacturing jobs in the country. Tamil…
July 30, 2025
AnalysisMilitary Unification?
A critical juncture for European defense policy
The institutionalization of European defense policy has navigated tenuous terms since the Treaty of Rome and the formation of the EU. Concerns over national sovereignty have typically stood in the way of a coherent supranational industrial policy and effective defense…
July 25, 2025
AnalysisRebuilding the Kingdom
Transformations of state, economy, and class in Saudi Vision 2030
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Saudi Vision 2030 promises to transform the oil power’s economy and society. The plan has prompted an enormous wave on construction—in just a few years, Saudi Arabia is poised to host the largest construction market…
July 25, 2025
InterviewsAn Ungovernable Country
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira analyzes the political and economic situation of Lula’s third term
With the onset of the Washington Consensus in the 1980s, Brazil’s economy began grinding to a halt. The extraordinary growth that had set it apart in the decades after the Second World War quickly came undone as public investment receded,…
After Seville
COP30 in Belém
The fourth UN Financing for Development conference, which concluded in Seville earlier this month, was a high-stakes event. The climate crisis is accelerating while climate commitments are weakening; official development assistance is shrinking while debt service is eviscerating poor countries’…
BRICS in 2025
Two energy systems and development models compete for primacy within the group
Within the BRICS group, two competing global models of energy, growth, and influence. The future of the world’s majority will be decided by the pace of the contest between green technologies and fossil fuels.
The Private Sector at Seville
Investment alliances at FfD4
Ten years after the 2015 Addis Ababa Conference on Financing for Development, the finance development doctrine of “Billions to Trillions,” popularized by the World Bank, is alive and kicking. At the Fourth Conference on Financing for Development, taking place in…
The Welfare State and Its Discontents
The Seville model of investible development
Ajay Banga, the World Bank Group’s president, has a favorite line: “Poverty is a state of mind.” It was in his speech at the IMF/World Bank Annual meeting last October, and he repeated it at the opening ceremony of the…
Who’s Afraid of a Fair Debt Architecture?
Sovereign debt at FfD4 in Seville
The fourth Financing for Development Conference officially kicked off in Seville this Monday, as world leaders gathered with broad smiles to congratulate one another for the good work already achieved. That work was the FfD4 outcome document, which had been…
Dispatch from Seville
Fracturing multilateralism at the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development
Multilateralism might be broken, but it is not dead yet. Or so we should conclude from the multilateral negotiations ahead of the fourth edition of the UN Financing for Development conference, about to begin in Seville. A once in a…
June 26, 2025
AnalysisDismantling an Energy Giant
The cost of privatizing the energy sector in Costa Rica
Since assuming office in May 2022, Costa Rican president Rodrigo Chaves has announced his intentions to revamp the country’s electricity sector. By October, his government had given private companies a more prominent role in the currently state-dominated energy sector, both…
June 14, 2025
AnalysisIndustrial Policy and Imperial Realignment
Growing asymmetries in global development
More than 2500 industrial policies were recorded in 2023, but they are being deployed asymmetrically across the global economy. The pace at which advanced economies and less-developed countries are adopting industrial policies is diverging, with the former better positioned to…
June 5, 2025
AnalysisOffshoring the Planet
A battle for jurisdictional control lies at the heart of the global green transition
The rise of green offshore finance threatens to encase biodiversity and climate policymaking within global South states and across the multilateral system, locking in a standardized set of biodiversity and climate financing, governance, and policy measures for decades to come.
May 16, 2025
AnalysisOPEC Plus
Economics and politics in an expanding exporters organization
While OPEC's economic stratagem has always trumped the political orientation of some of its members, wide geopolitical shifts have diminished the role of some nations while allowing for new partnerships unimaginable in the twentieth century. As an expanded organization, OPEC+…
May 15, 2025
AnalysisA Class Coup
Workers, unions, and dictatorship in Brazil (1964–85)
The struggle for rights of Brazilian workers, and its fierce public presence since the end of the Second World War, reached its apogee early in the 1960s. In a climate shaped by the Cold War, many in Brazil's middle and…
May 8, 2025
AnalysisGreen Indicative Planning
Market economies need planning to survive climate breakdown
With derisking regimes falling short of meeting governments' pledges to reach net zero carbon emissions, what lessons can we learn from governance through indicative planning? Historically strong coordination between states and corporate elites in Denmark, France, the Netherlands, and Japan…
April 24, 2025
AnalysisGlobal BYD
The international expansion of Chinese electric vehicles
Amid the intensifying retreat of American hegemony, an alternative geo-economic and geopolitical arrangement is coming into view: a battery-powered globalization with Chinese characteristics. Chinese EV manufacturer has recently raced ahead of Tesla in global EV sales. How will China’s EV…
April 17, 2025
AnalysisGreen Gold
Palm oil and Indonesia’s plantation economy
Indonesia is the world’s largest palm oil producer, contributing to 60 percent of global market. But is the country’s cash crop a developmental dead end?
April 3, 2025
AnalysisBrazil’s Neo-Extractivist Trap
Dependency patterns at the dusk of neoliberalism
The construction of a post-neoliberal order is underway. As with the rise of liberalism and neoliberalism, the solidification of a post-neoliberal international order will not unfold homogeneously across the globe. Scholarship exploring neo-extractivism has elaborated on the persistence of dependency…
February 27, 2025
AnalysisThe Canal Zone
Panama’s transit-oriented development model remains subjugated to imperial interests
Trump’s vows to “take back” the Canal are part of a broader push to return to the heyday of American expansionism, throughout which Panama served as a key neocolonial outpost. Over the past two decades, Panamanian control of the canal…
February 22, 2025
AnalysisHow to DOGE USAID
The Wall Street Consensus under Trump
We often hear that the new Trump administration inaugurates the age of technofeudalism. But the gutting of USAID represents a continuity from the Biden years. DOGE is turbo-charging the lesser known but increasingly dominant agenda within development finance: “mobilizing private…
February 6, 2025
InterviewsRecycled Liberalism
An interview with Marta Castilho on the EU–Mercosur trade agreement
Since 1999, the European Union (EU) and Mercosur have been negotiating a bi-regional partnership agreement comprising three pillars: trade, cooperation, and political dialogue. A quarter century later, in December 2024, the parties announced the conclusion of negotiations during the Mercosur…
February 5, 2025
AnalysisAfter the Diamond Rush
South Africa and the internationalization of mineral extraction
For over 150 years, mining has constituted a core feature of the South African economy. The seemingly inexhaustible bounty of the earth made the country the wealthiest in the continent and financed one of the most all-encompassing systems of racial…
January 30, 2025
AnalysisState and Development
Contemporary industrial policy and challenges for the Brazilian economy
The world economy has seen a resurgence of industrial policy in recent decades. National development programs are at the center of a variety of polarizing geopolitical axes: carbon emissions, world manufacturing shares, and integration into rival trade and investment blocs.…
January 25, 2025
InterviewsDecolonizing Jamaica
An interview with Professor Anthony Bogues on Michael Manley’s centenary
The ideas of the Jamaican political leader Michael Manley had a global impact that continues to be felt today. As the leader of the People’s National Party (PNP) from 1969 to 1992, and particularly in his first period as prime…
January 16, 2025
AnalysisDevelopmental Tracks
American railroad regulation as industrial policy
Recent years have seen an astonishing resurgence of industrial policy as a legislative agenda and topic for lively debate. Thanks in large part to the waning political fortunes of neoliberalism, deliberate efforts by governments to shape the economic trajectories of…
December 27, 2024
AnalysisBrave New World
A third industrial divide?
Endogenous dynamics have crippled the current growth wave that began in the 1980s—yielding the period of decay in which we are now living. Rather than achieving a new stability of horizontal competition, the turn toward the market brought about a…
December 18, 2024
AnalysisTransfer and Transition
Technology transfer and green industrial transformation
Over the past years of escalating trade disputes between China and the US, the latter has repeatedly highlighted a practice it considers anathema: technology transfers that US companies need to offer to their Chinese collaborators if they want to do…
America First?
Escalation and reverberations in the trade war
The reelection of Donald Trump to the presidency has sent shockwaves around the world. And just hours after results came in, the ruling three-party German coalition government, which had been teetering for months, collapsed. The survival of dominant political coalitions in…
December 12, 2024
InterviewsDisplacement and Development
An interview with Gilberto Cervinski of Brazil's Movement of People Affected by Dams
The same water produces electricity twenty times over the course of a basin. But these very low costs do not translate into benefits for the people.
December 6, 2024
AnalysisEnergy Offshoots
Transformations in Petróleos de Venezuela and geopolitical realignments
Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) has been integral to Nicolás Maduro’s government and the greater Chavista project. Despite the state-owned oil company controlling the largest crude oil reserves in the world, its production capabilities have fallen sharply since 2014: the country…
October 23, 2024
AnalysisDebt’s Political Fix
Elections and bond deals in Sri Lanka
The IMF claims that the debt crisis is one of liquidity, requiring money thrown at the problem, rather than one of solvency, compelling debt forgiveness that should be absorbed by losses to the financiers. In Sri Lanka, this political fix…
October 22, 2024
Analysis“Greenwashing” Structural Adjustment
Should the IMF lead the global energy transition?
In a global financial system underpinned by the US dollar, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes can push much of the global South to the brink of a full-blown debt crisis. The exposure of Southern countries to such external risks,…
Marshall Plans
New green industrial diplomacy?
At September’s UN General Assembly in New York, Brazil’s President Lula described the international financial system as a “Marshall Plan in reverse” in which the poorest countries finance the richest. Driving the point home, Lula thundered, “African countries borrow at…
The Contest to Shape “Country Platforms”
IMF reforms and Bangladesh’s revolt
Last month, young people in Bangladesh revolted against their government over a jobs quota bill that would have reserved 30 percent of public-sector jobs for family members of veterans of the 1971 war with Pakistan. Protestors did manage to drive…
August 21, 2024
AnalysisThe World’s Stockyard
Agribusiness and the green transition in Brazil
In the age of climate emergency, the developmental drawbacks of being a primary goods exporter may intensify. Besides barriers to climbing the value chain on the world market, the economic cost of becoming the world’s stockyard is compounded by its…
The View From Nairobi-Washington
Debt, austerity, and Kenya’s global positioning
On June 25, crowning a dramatic, nationwide tax revolt, demonstrators in Nairobi stormed Kenya’s parliament buildings. President William Ruto’s new finance bill, introduced in Parliament in May, sought to increase levies on everything from bread and money transfers to sanitary…
June 28, 2024
AnalysisTrade and the Manufacturing Share
Tariffs, manufacturing, and US capital controls
One of the concerns in American policy circles in recent years has been the long-term impact of foreign trade and industrial policies on the health and strength of American manufacturing. The Trump and Biden administrations tried to address this weakness…
June 27, 2024
AnalysisBattery Supremacy
Hungary's role in Europe's EV industry
In the Summer of 2022, Viktor Orbán sparked international outrage by lamenting that countries where Europeans and non-Europeans mingle were “no longer nations.” Amid the uproar, a dramatic pronouncement in the same speech largely escaped notice: Orbán declared his ambitions…
June 20, 2024
AnalysisDriving Capital
The USMCA, the IRA, and Mexico’s electric vehicle boom
Since President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law in August 2022, the Mexican auto assembly and parts industries have been booming. Tesla and the Chinese state-owned carmaker Jetour announced the construction of new factories for electric vehicles…
May 23, 2024
AnalysisThe Productivity Gap
Rethinking corporate-led industrialization in India
Standard development economics anticipates that the composition of a country’s labor force will go hand in hand with the composition of output, reflected in the division between the primary, secondary, and services sectors. But contemporary India, as well as several…
May 18, 2024
AnalysisUnderdevelopment and War
Dependency, neocolonialism, and the agrarian problem in Colombia
In the 1960s and 70s, the Colombian national government embarked on an ambitious agrarian reform program to address poverty in the increasingly violent countryside. Under the bipartisan project of the National Front, which alternated power between the Conservative and Liberal…
May 2, 2024
AnalysisPartners in Growth?
Tata and the evolution of state-capital relations in independent India
With general elections continuing into early June, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are poised to begin a second decade in power. In the realm of political economy, it is meant to be the…
April 25, 2024
AnalysisIlliberal Developmentalism
Indonesia under Prabowo
The election of Prabowo Subianto to the Indonesian presidency two months ago has been warmly welcomed by business and political elites in the country. The day following the result, the Jakarta composite index rose by 1.3 percent, a tacit sign…
April 18, 2024
AnalysisThe Origins of Conditionality
How the IMF turned to austerity
Contemporary debates around the governance of the global economy often center on the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), arguably the most powerful international organization that—among other responsibilities—provides loans to countries in economic crisis. The most recent iteration of…
April 11, 2024
AnalysisThe Electric Vehicle Developmental State
BYD exemplifies transformations in Chinese industrial policy
The rise of the Chinese EV industry has been enabled not only by generous government subsidies but also by profound changes in strategy and organization, and in particular by a distinctive revival of vertical integration—at both individual firm and national…
April 5, 2024
AnalysisInflation as Distributive Struggle
Milei’s relationship with the unions will determine the fate of his government
On January 24, 2024, Argentina’s General Confederation of Labor (CGT) called for a twelve-hour general strike—the first in almost five years—just forty-five days into President Javier Milei’s term. This action was a direct response to the first measures proposed by…
March 21, 2024
AnalysisOffshore Treasure
ExxonMobil, Venezuela, and the battle for Guyana’s oil
Since the discovery of some of the world’s largest oil reserves in 2015, Guyana has entered a period of economic and geostrategic reconfiguration. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Guyana holds the sixth-largest oil reserves in the Americas and…
March 7, 2024
InterviewsPetrobras in Transition
An interview with Cibele Vieira of the Oil Workers’ Federation of Brazil
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s campaign for his third term as Brazil’s president was defined by the idea of reconstruction. This encompassed both a political recovery from the antidemocratic reign of Jair Bolsonaro as well as the promise of reindustrialization…
March 2, 2024
AnalysisOil Linkages
State-led development in Angola and Nigeria
Oil and gas producers in Africa face unique challenges in pursuing state-led development. The resource curse, and specifically the phenomenon of “Dutch disease”, which inflates the value of the local currency, makes exporting local products abroad difficult. As long as…
February 24, 2024
AnalysisThe G20 in the South
The Brazilian Presidency in 2024
In December 2023, Brazil began presiding over the G20. The one-year presidency, which will culminate in the annual summit being hosted in Rio de Janeiro in November 2024, is the third of four terms from the global South—following Indonesia in…
January 27, 2024
AnalysisThe Falling Lira
Turkey’s state of permanent crisis
Since late 2021, the Turkish economy has been shattering conventional economic expectations. With deeply negative real interest rates, high inflation, a large and persistent current account deficit, an external debt stock exceeding 50 percent of GDP, and a central bank…
January 17, 2024
AnalysisMiracle in Reverse
The trials of South Korea’s growth models
The South Korean economy has widely been recognized as the paragon of the East Asian miracle, with rapid economic growth and a fairly equal income distribution. The country continued its upward growth trajectory even in the aftermath of the 1997…
December 21, 2023
AnalysisAnarcho-Capitalism
Argentina between the IMF and China
Since the early 2000s, Argentine development finance has undergone a profound transformation. Amid cyclical debt defaults and endless negotiations with Western investors and the IMF, Chinese overseas investment loans have slowly crept to the fore. Between 2007 and 2020, Argentina…
A Year in Crises
Trade, war, labor, and South-North dynamics in 2023
When we launched The Polycrisis a year ago, we set out to examine the intersecting crises in the economy, energy system, commodities markets, geopolitics, and climate. Our aim was to break intellectual and political silos to give a fuller picture…
Governing the Climate
An interview with Navroz Dubash on COP28, the history of international climate diplomacy, and the developmentalist turn in climate politics
An interview with Navroz Dubash on COP28, the history of international climate diplomacy, and the developmentalist turn in climate politics
December 5, 2023
AnalysisSectoral Strategy
Free trade and the resurgence of industrial policy in Africa
Industrial policy in Africa is back. Beginning last January, Nigeria moved forward with the second phase of its “Sugar Master Plan,” a flagship industrial policy that began in 2013 to stimulate domestic production. It does this by offering numerous incentives…
October 7, 2023
AnalysisDownstream Industries
Indonesia’s export ban on nickel
A pillar of Indonesia’s unprecedented economic growth over the last decade has been its ban on the export of raw nickel ore. This national experiment in downstream industrial policy began with the 2009 Mining Law signed by former president Susilo…
September 16, 2023
AnalysisCrisis in the Bread Basket
Investment and agriculture in Punjab
In the run-up to the general elections of 2014, Narendra Modi was hailed across mainstream quarters of journalism and policy-making as the crusader of economic reform and growth in India, a spirit that was only bolstered by the resounding majority…
Defining Bidenomics
Industrial policy, labor, and the New Cold War
A new American industrial policy—“Bidenomics”—has arrived, consisting of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Infrastructure, Investment and Jobs Act, and the CHIPS and Science Act. The proclaimed goals of Bidenomics are to propel a green energy transition to confront climate…
Grievance and Reform
Will the BRICS bargaining chip bear fruit for smaller and lower-income countries?
The precursor of 2022’s energy crisis was 2020–2021’s vaccine apartheid. These shortages were in no way natural but reflected financial and geopolitical hierarchies: those with more power and resources bid up prices and developing countries lost out in the process.…
The Investment Climate
The limits of private financing
The world urgently needs financing for renewable energy, infrastructure, public transit, land restoration, and much more to face the storm of climate change. But these necessary capital investments in the green transition face real barriers, such as a high cost…
August 5, 2023
AnalysisThe Agribusiness Pact
The “reprimarization” of the Brazilian economy
Over the past two decades, Brazilian media and political discourse have exalted the uncontroversial success of a magical entity known as “agribusiness.” Closely associated with the rise of commodity exports such as soy, sugarcane, and corn, “agribusiness” has come to…
July 29, 2023
InterviewsFragile Democracies
An interview with Pranab Bardhan
Pranab Bardhan is Professor Emeritus of Economics at University of California, Berkeley. Among the foremost global scholars of development, distribution, and trade, his twelve books and more than one hundred fifty journal articles cross disciplinary boundaries in an effort to…
July 5, 2023
AnalysisThe Myth of Underdevelopment
Legal autonomy and land reform in Jammu and Kashmir
On August 5, 2019, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah presented the draft of the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Reorganization Bill in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s parliament. The bill threatened to permanently alter the legal, political, and…
July 1, 2023
AnalysisParallel Systems
China, the IMF, and the future of sovereign debt financing
At the start of her three-nation tour of Africa this January, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke to the Associated Press in Senegal, bemoaning the “piling, unsustainable debt” that, she said, “plagued” many African countries. This was a “problem,” she…
Carbon Budget versus Fiscal Budget
What’s at stake in the fiscal rules debate?
Negotiations at the Summit for a Global Finance Pact in Paris last week took place between fifty heads of state. They revolved around how poor countries might develop and decarbonize, within the confines of the existing financial system. A common…
Feasibility Pact?
Systemic reform, debt, and political feasibility at the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris
A brewing sovereign debt crisis threatens to engulf as many as sixty-one countries in debt distress over the coming year. Aid flowing from the global North—which carries the most responsibility for the atmospheric carbon stock—to the global South—which bears the…
Mottley in Paris, Modi in DC
Prospects for the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact
Next week, a couple of dozen heads of state—from countries including China, Brazil, Indonesia, and almost a dozen African countries, among them Kenya, Zambia, and Senegal—will gather in Paris for the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact. Instigated by…
June 3, 2023
ReviewsSupply-Side Coalitions
On Brent Cebul’s “Illusions of Progress: Business, Poverty, and Liberalism in the American Century”
The Biden administration’s multifaceted industrial strategy of the past two years has ushered in an ill-defined transition away from neoliberalism. In response to the lingering supply chain constraints created by the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, as well as…
May 31, 2023
AnalysisIndustrial Transformations
Lessons from development economics for industrial policy design
The latest US experiment with industrial policy—exemplified by the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act—has sparked outright opposition and pleas for restraint, but also calls for a far more ambitious action.
A New Foreign Policy
Understanding the “New Washington Consensus”
Leaders need followers. Last month, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan delivered a speech outlining the Biden administration’s international economic policy at the Brookings Institute in Washington. The “New Washington Consensus” was not directed at citizens but at capitals abroad.…
The End of the Cold Peace
Can the Asian growth miracle survive?
Watch the Korean Peninsula. It is in South Korea that the New Cold War has most visibly upset the delicate balance between industry, security, and domestic politics. South Korea’s growth miracle has been based on deterrence and detente between China,…
The Gigantic Austerity Drive Underway
Two billion people are suffering austerity as governments follow IMF diktat
We are quietly witnessing the largest shift to austerity undertaken in this century. Debt-strained developing countries are making further cuts to already ragged budgets, in many cases as they battle to meet punishing new conditions demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which held…
Mercantilist Deals of the Great Powers
Decoupling from China is an uphill task in both the global North and the global South
This is the twelfth edition of The Polycrisis newsletter, written by Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay. Subscribe here to get it in your inbox. The maiden flight of a new cargo route between Shenzhen and São Paulo took off on…
March 3, 2023
AnalysisWall Street Consensus a la Française
Development agendas at the Gabon One Forest Summit
Since his election in 2017, French President Emmanuel Macron has periodically committed to resetting France’s relationship with Africa. In 2020, his so-called Macron Doctrine denounced the Washington Consensus for creating a “capitalism that has become financialized, that has become over-concentrated…
March 1, 2023
AnalysisThe IMF Trap
Debt, austerity, and inequality in Sri Lanka’s historic crisis
Massive demonstrations that swept Sri Lanka last year exposed the serious challenges at the heart of the global economy. In July 2022, former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was forced to flee the country, only a few months after announcing a hasty…
Debt and Power in Pakistan
The subcontinent’s embattled debtor isn’t merely the passive victim of the climate crisis— it is being plundered by its elites
The subcontinent’s embattled debtor isn’t merely the passive victim of the climate crisis—it is being plundered by its elites.
Securitizing the Transition
The logic of privatization in climate finance
In the eyes of the IMF, a G20 panel, and, lately, the US Treasury Secretary, the time has come for multilateral development banks to adapt their development mandates to the logic of derisking. This tactic—lauded as a solution for “mobilizing”…
Don’t Say “Scramble for Africa”
Debt and diplomacy on the African continent
Militarized Adaptation
War, energy, and NATO’s new climate framework
This essay first appeared in GREEN, a journal from Groupe d’études géopolitiques. When NATO held its two-day summit in Madrid in June 2022, the Spanish government deployed ten thousand police officers to cordon off entire parts of the city, including…
January 7, 2023
InterviewsSectional Industrialization
An interview with Richard Bensel
Few scholars have done more to elucidate the relationship between democracy and economic development in the United States and its corresponding regional—or “sectional”—antagonisms than Richard Franklin Bensel, the Gary S. Davis professor of government at Cornell University. Among Bensel’s published…
December 17, 2022
AnalysisDroughts and Dams
The troubled future of World Bank-funded hydropower in Zambia
Most of Zambia’s grid electricity is generated by hydropower. Over the past decade, recurring droughts—in 2015, 2016, 2019, and now again in 2022—have exposed the deep vulnerabilities in the system. These droughts have unleashed unprecedented power outages, with low reservoir…
Money and the Climate Crisis
COP27 and financing the green transition
The conclusion of COP27 reflected persisting uncertainties around coordinated global action towards decarbonization. Major agreements—including the establishment of a loss and damage fund—were reached, but the burden of mounting debt among global South countries continued to limit climate ambition. The…
November 19, 2022
AnalysisThe Wall Street Consensus at COP27
The derisking roll-out at COP27
At COP26, US Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry sanguinely declared the need to “de-risk the investment, and create the capacity to have bankable deals. That’s doable for water, it’s doable for electricity, it’s doable for transportation.” UN Special Envoy…
A New Non-Alignment
How developing countries are flouting Western sanctions and playing the great powers off each other
This essay first appeared in GREEN, a journal from Groupe d’études géopolitiques. In March of this year, as Russia’s war in Ukraine intensified, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a trip to New Delhi to speak with his Indian counterpart…
The Geopolitics of Stuff
A discussion on supply chains, commodities, and climate
The material economy is back. Economists and commentators in recent decades had heralded (or lamented) the arrival of an automated, redundant, frictionless system of international commerce. But over the past two years, multiple global crises have exposed the fragile physical…
September 24, 2022
AnalysisAfrica’s Century of Growth?
On Morten Jerven’s The Wealth and Poverty of African States
On May 1, 2014, Nigeria’s then-president, Goodluck Jonathan, addressed a crowd of workers in the country’s capital Abuja. He declared that “the challenge of the country is not poverty, but redistribution of wealth.” The prompt for his comment was a…
September 20, 2022
AnalysisThe Finance Gap
Poverty finance from colonial Kenya to microcredit markets
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ foreword to the UN’s Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development’s 2021 Financing for Sustainable Development report, speaks to a prevalent piece of common sense in global development: Financing for sustainable development is at a crossroads.…
July 23, 2022
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This month China narrowly missed its growth targets, sparking speculation over the economic impacts of its zero-Covid policy. The contraction was heavily shaped by local governments, who, struggling to get loans from institutional bond investors, have begun to offer high…
July 23, 2022
InterviewsResource Nationalism and Decarbonization
Revisiting “resource nationalism” in a new era of raw minerals demand
Across Latin America, a recent wave of left electoral victories has drawn comparisons to “Pink Tide” of the early 2000s. The current moment, however, coincides with a global push towards decarbonization, and much of the world’s supply of commodities essential…
July 16, 2022
AnalysisDevelopment Engines
NAFTA, electric vehicles, and the evolution of Mexico's auto industry
In December 2021, President Joe Biden announced a proposed consumer tax incentive for electric vehicles (EV) made in the US by unionized autoworkers. The tax incentive aims at tackling climate change while also strengthening unionized jobs. It promises to support…
July 7, 2022
InterviewsThe IMF & the Legacy of Bretton Woods
Global South debt crises and the evolution of the international monetary system
Fifty years on from the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the role of the international monetary system and international financial institutions in managing the global economy are in question.
July 2, 2022
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Among the most notable innovations in trade union strategy since the late 20th century has been the rise of shareholder activism. The approach leverages trillions of dollars in trade union pension funds to navigate the financial sector on behalf of…
June 29, 2022
AnalysisGeographies in Transition
Mining-based development and the EU's critical raw materials strategy
Though it failed to resolve a number of contentious issues, the COP26 meeting in Glasgow solidified a consensus around the need for a global transition towards clean energy. Implicated in this transition is the widescale adoption of renewables—we must build…
June 10, 2022
AnalysisLeapfrog Logistics
Digital platforms, infrastructure, and labor in Brazil and China
In Spring 2018, two significant labor disputes broke out at opposite ends of the earth. The first, in Brazil, was a two-week-long mass strike of 400,000 truckers in response to successive price increases unleashed by the state oil company, Petrobras,…
June 4, 2022
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In recent decades, the global financial system has undergone a series of profound crises. While the impact of these crises has been felt globally, comprehensive reforms have been less immediate.
May 28, 2022
AnalysisFarmland Assets
International finance and the transformation of Brazil’s agricultural lands
The election of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 commenced a long agenda of environmental destruction in Brazil. Before taking office, Bolsonaro had openly threatened Indigenous communities with racist attacks, commenting that Indigenous peoples should not have “an inch of land” and…
May 14, 2022
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News around the potential reversal of Roe v. Wade in the United States has brought renewed attention to abortion rights movements in other parts of the globe, and in particular, Latin America. After decades of court cases, legislative efforts, and…
May 14, 2022
AnalysisPersisting Paternalisms
The Auxilio Brasil in perspective
In recent months Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro appears to have shape-shifted. From a staunch ally of business interests, he now presents himself as a president of the poor. The basis of this transformation is his new conditional cash-transfer programme Auxilio…
April 23, 2022
Sources
A top economic advisor in the Dominican Republic recently estimated that the loss of Russian and Ukranian visitors would cost the country $400 million in tourism revenue. With 9.5 percent of GDP traced back to tourism reciepts, the DR is…
April 13, 2022
AnalysisAusterity and Renewables
A new IMF-approved tax regime is crippling Pakistan’s green energy sector
After weeks of rising domestic pressure, a spiraling economic crisis, and the swift loss of crucial military support, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed from office last weekend following a vote of no confidence. The political turmoil is the…
March 26, 2022
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Brazil's nearly 70-year-old national oil company, Petrobrás, faces criticism from across the political spectrum for its simultaneous price hikes and record breaking annual profits.
March 23, 2022
AnalysisA New Public Housing Model
Addis Ababa's Urban Transformation
In 2006, the government of Ethiopia embarked on a mission to construct half a million condominium apartments over a twenty-year period in its capital of Addis Ababa—a city of only five million. Now, sixteen years later, the initiative has transformed the…
March 19, 2022
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In December 1973, Richard Nixon announced the Emergency Daylight Saving Time Energy Conservation Act as a response to the oil crisis, arguing that making the time change permanent would reduce energy usage with "only a minimum of inconvenience." Nearly fifty years…
February 26, 2022
Sources
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's suspension of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project has provoked numerous commentaries on potential geopolitical, growth-related, and inflationary ramifications.
February 19, 2022
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The pandemic imposed major stress on municipal budgets around the world, with many local governments facing a mix of decreasing revenues and increasing expenditures. In the United States, municipal budgets—which saw smaller revenue losses than expected—reflected a range of taxing…
February 14, 2022
AnalysisEskom, Unbundling, and Decarbonization
The history of South Africa’s state utility and the future of the energy transition
South Africa has one of the most carbon-intensive economies in the world. It is also in a staggering and protracted unemployment crisis—the real unemployment rate, including discouraged work-seekers, is near 50 percent. But there remain tens of thousands of workers…
February 11, 2022
AnalysisA New Developmentalism?
On the stages of Argentine developmentalism.
In 2003, led by the government of Néstor Kirchner (2003–2007), Argentina’s developmental agenda regained momentum. From the ashes of privatization, deregulation, and liberalization emerged a consensus agenda that put the public sphere at the center of the growth engine. The…
January 15, 2022
Sources
This week, the Indian megaconglomerate Adani Group and South Korean steel company POSCO announced plans to build a "green" integrated steel mill in Gujurat, India. The mill marks the latest in the Adani Group's efforts to move into the green industrial sector…
November 23, 2021
AnalysisTrade and Growth
Revisiting the effects of trade liberalization on economic growth
According to a survey on free trade from the University of Chicago, economists overwhelmingly agree that free trade’s net effects are good. A recent article by several IMF economists affirms that, “perhaps more than on any other issue, there is…
November 18, 2021
AnalysisThe Wall Street Consensus at COP26
Finance Day at COP26 shows a ruthless dedication to voluntary decarbonization
Wednesday, November 3, was private finance day at COP26. For those who follow central banks closely, the event was a chance to gauge whether their recent turn to climate-conscious policy making would translate into ambitious decarbonization announcements. After all, private…
November 2, 2021
AnalysisThe Diverging Gap
The history of the global infrastructure gap
On June 11, leaders at the G7 summit signed the Build Back Better World (B3W) Partnership, an agreement which commits signatories to meet the infrastructure needs of low- and middle-income countries. The deal is an explicit response to China’s Belt…
October 9, 2021
Sources
As the Fed moves towards tightening its post-pandemic monetary policy, developing countries around the world face growing risks of capital flight. The deep political constraints posed by this risk are not new, but their implications for contemporary policymaking are persistent.
September 18, 2021
AnalysisDevelopmentalisms
The forgotten ancestors of East Asian developmentalism
2021 marked the centenary of the creation of the Chinese Communist Party, born of the May Fourth Movement of 1919. History textbooks tend to claim that the Movement emerged out of a widespread realization that China’s rights as a victorious…
July 20, 2021
AnalysisPath Persistence
Global trade hierarchies across two eras of globalization
What is the legacy of the First Globalization of the late nineteenth- and early twentieth-centuries on the economic fortunes of countries during the Second Globalization? To what extent have countries’ positions in the international economic order been persistent across the…
July 17, 2021
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Earlier this week, the EU published a series of proposals aimed at reducing its carbon emissions by 55 percent by 2030. The legislation has revived debates on the economic models best suited to facilitating investment and decarbonization.
June 12, 2021
Sources
former congresswoman and daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori. The contest has revealed deep polarization in the country between social movements opposed to foreign investment and those who favored market liberalization that has defined Peruvian politics since the 1990s.
April 17, 2021
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In January 2021, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman unveiled plans to build ‘The Line’, a $/500bn futuristic 170km carbon-free city strip in Neom destined to be fully automated, fueled by clean energy, linked to neighboring Jordan and…
April 10, 2021
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Amid the global Covid-19 vaccination campaign, a debate has emerged around intellectual property (IP) and stark inequalities in vaccine distribution. Wealthier nations have opposed a petition to waive the 1995 Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement, which imposes…
April 3, 2021
Sources
Earlier this week, the blockage of the Suez Canal by the giant Ever Given container ship prompted renewed discussions on the weakness of our supply chain infrastructure, the future of globalization, and the region's colonial past.
January 16, 2021
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The simultaneous integration of global markets and decentralization of government within nation states has been a hallmark of the age of globalization. In a 2004 article, NEIL BRENNER looks to Europe to argue that through processes of decentralization and localization,…
January 9, 2021
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The deep divisions in American political and social life have long been thought to explain the unique weakness of America’s welfare infrastructure, and the absence of an integrated system of universal benefits. But on their own, demographic divisions need not…
November 25, 2020
InterviewsDevelopment, Growth, Power
An interview with Amit Bhaduri.
Amit Bhaduri was internationally selected professor at Pavia University and visiting Professor at the Council for Social Development, Delhi University. His six books and more than sixty journal articles have consistently scrutinized the foundations of neoclassical economic theory and presented…
September 19, 2020
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Since the first export processing zone was established in Puerto Rico during the 1940s, special economic zones (SEZs) have proliferated to number 5,400 across 147 countries and employ more than 100 million workers. While the zones have been lauded for…
August 15, 2020
AnalysisAnother Lost Decade?
The systemic character of the global periphery debt crisis.
Contrary to common beliefs on fiscal fundamentals, the current debt crisis in the global periphery demonstrates that the solvency of sovereign states is determined by their monetary power. Crucially, liquidity has a cyclical character in the periphery of global capitalism…
June 30, 2020
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Brazil's Bolsa Familia is widely credited with lifting more than 20 million people out of extreme poverty, making it a global model for anti-poverty initiatives. Developed as part of a broader theory of equitable development, it serves as the basis…
May 28, 2020
AnalysisDigital Scab, Digital Snitch
On automation and worker surveillance
Before Covid-19 hit, we'd become used to reports about Amazon's robotics innovations and the impending large-scale automation of warehouse jobs. But recent strikes and protests by Amazon's very human workers have exposed how far we are from robotic warehouses.
May 19, 2020
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Among the many corona-induced shocks rippling through the global economy is the crash in remittance payments to developing countries. The World Bank predicts that remittance flows will fall 20% this year—a decline of $100b—largely as a result of shutdowns and…
April 21, 2020
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Among the diverse local and national policy responses undertaken to combat the pandemic in recent months, Kerala's has been notable. Within the broader context of Indian economic development, Kerala's government has a tradition of successful redistributive development policies, sometimes referred…
March 6, 2020
Phenomenal WorksPhenomenal Works: Nathan Lane
History, empirics, and industrial policy
Nathan Lane is an economist working on political economy, development, and economic history.
January 27, 2020
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Deindustrialization is a global phenomenon taking place more rapidly in middle- income countries than in high-income ones. Despite the global decline of manufacturing employment, "industrial policy" is increasingly salient in research and policy debates. But deindustrialization poses significant challenges for…
January 9, 2020
Phenomenal WorksPhenomenal Works: Alice Evans
Four books and papers on the 'despondency trap'
Alice Evans is a Lecturer in the Social Science of International Development at King's College London, and a Faculty Associate at Harvard's Kennedy School. She is writing a book on “The Great Gender Divergence”, which explores why European countries rapidly…
November 22, 2019
AnalysisDevelopment and Displacement
The effects of big development initiatives
Infrastructure lies at the heart of development. From transportation and telecommunication networks to electrical grids and water pipelines, large-scale infrastructure projects play a pivotal role in the global development landscape.
September 3, 2019
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Last week, we considered how social and political standards can pressure climate scientists to under-report their findings, introducing an underestimation bias into published climate research. In a recent thread, Nicholas Loubere examines the development buzz around mobile money, showing how…
April 6, 2019
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The most visible discourse on universal basic income focuses squarely on the labor market. Unconditional cash transfers are understood above all as a potential policy solution to wage stagnation, rising inequality, and labor displacement. This framework, which responds to rising…
March 23, 2019
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There is renewed debate around the merits of protectionism and free trade, spurred by political rhetoric from the left and right in the US, and in Europe and Latin America. Active disagreements over the consequences of free trade date back…
September 29, 2018
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MIDDLE WAGE Questioning the great transition into a "global middle class" Economist STEVE KNAUSS, in a new paper published by the CANADIAN JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES, examines the "myth" of the global middle class and the claim that the $2/day…
April 7, 2018
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TARGET VARIABLE Big data's effect on the credit-scoring industry A lengthy 2016 article from the Yale Journal of Law and Technology delves into credit-scoring then suggests a new legislative framework. Since 2008, lenders have only intensified their use of big-data…