The Polycrisis

March 26, 2026

Analysis

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The illegal war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has triggered the mother of all commodity-supply shocks. In response to the unprovoked onslaught, Iran has all but closed the Strait of Hormuz, bringing to a standstill the delivery of…

The appointment of Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei reflects the shifting balance of power in wartime Iran.

Iran’s security structure ensures that the US will struggle to contain the dynamic of military escalation or determine its political outcomes.

An Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone is a simple weapon. The delta wings, which span 2.5 meters, are made of fiberglass and end in two fixed vertical stabilizers.

Years of international isolation and sanctions have prompted Iran to structure its economy to survive various kinds of onslaught. Though it remains exposed to further interruption, Iran’s economy has proven itself resilient in the face of Israel’s campaign. What explains…

The oil boom of the late 2000s created significant headwinds for Iranian manufacturers. As the value of oil exports surged, the Iranian rial appreciated, real wages rose, and foreign goods flooded the Iranian market. Middle-class families relished in their newfound…

Sanctions against Iran amount to some of the harshest and longest-running restrictions in the world. Dating back to the 1979 revolution that overthrew one of America’s closest allies in the region, early sanctions imposed primarily by the US froze Iranian…

“Plumbing” is an oft-used metaphor for understanding how sanctions work. Sanctions are intended to stop the flow of money to the targeted government; reserves are frozen, trade is blocked, export revenues dry up, and government budgets are drained. Even the…